When Signals Stop Making Sense
Why scanning systems struggle when meaning changes faster than our categories can adapt
Conceptual essay
Jen Stumbles
horizon scanning
weak signals
sensemaking
grounded theory
intelligence tradecraft
AI-assisted research
futures intelligence
About this Drop
A conceptual essay on why horizon scanning systems struggle when the meaning of a signal shifts faster than the categories built to hold it. This Drop gathers the essay with the sources it leans on, the passages where it leans on them, the cover asset and a first sketch of how the ideas connect.
Drop contents
00
Open
Essay
Own page · 7 Sep 2026
01
Present
Source library
13 · links
02
Absent
Data
No dataset
03
Absent
Signals of change
No scan hits here
04
Present
Assets
1 · cover image
05
Sketch
Idea map
The thinking
06
Soon
AI declaration
Not yet
Where the essay leans
Passages where the argument draws on other people’s work.
Passage
the contextual and relational character of weak signals
Ahlqvist & Uotila, 2020
Passage
persistent gaps in the traceability of scenario construction
Kosow, 2015 · Weidenfeld et al., 2026
Passage
the limitations of reductionist and extrapolative approaches to emergence
Kerbel, 2019
Passage
Lateral range does not, by itself, secure epistemic adequacy.
Indy Johar
Source library
Links and references, not the knowledge itself.
#
Role
Source
Year
Quoted or cited
Used as the argument goes
02
Cited
Ahlqvist & Uotila
Contextualising weak signals: Towards a relational theory of futures knowledge
Futures, 119
2020
03
Cited
Kerbel, J.
Coming to Terms with Anticipatory Intelligence
War on the Rocks, 13 Aug 2019
2019
05
Cited
Kosow, H.
New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios
European Journal of Futures Research, 3(16)
2015
12
Cited
Weidenfeld, Barbier, Fernandez & Payraudeau
From statements to model input data: Traceability and consistency of qualitative and quantitative scenarios in a participatory foresight exercise
Futures, 184
2026
13
Quoted
Johar, I.
Don’t become a generalist. Become recursive.
[publication to add]
[year to add]
Reference list
Listed at the end, not cited in the body
01
Listed
Ahlqvist, T.
Future uncertainties, emergence and context: On interface of strategic foresight and intelligence studies
Centrum Balticum, 22 Jan 2026
2026
04
Listed
Kosow, H.
Consistent context scenarios: A new approach to story and simulation
Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis
2011
06
Listed
Kuusi, Cuhls & Steinmüller
The futures Map and its quality criteria
European Journal of Futures Research, 3(22)
2015
07
Listed
Miller, R.
Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method
Futures, 39(4)
2007
08
Listed
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic standards
ODNI, 2 Jan 2015
2015
09
Listed
Centre for Strategic Futures
Our Approach
Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore, 29 Jul 2026
2026
10
Listed
Parson, E. A.
Useful global-change scenarios: Current issues and challenges
Environmental Research Letters, 3(4)
2008
11
Listed
Popper, R.
How are foresight methods selected?
Foresight, 10(6)
2008
Three earlier posts by the author are referenced in the essay. The split between cited and listed is a first reading, to confirm.
Assets
Cover image
AI-generated image
Midjourney v8.2, as captioned in the post
Prompt: [to add, or marked as withheld]
Overview
What is in this Drop.
Form
Conceptual essay
Published
7 Sept 2026
Sources
13
Quoted or cited
5
Version
0.1 draft
Cite this Drop
Stumbles, J. (2026, September 7). When Signals Stop Making Sense [Drop, v0.1 draft].